Choosing the NCAA basketball favorite and looking for maximum value for your bet




The college basketball season is in full swing, and the tension around the championship race is only rising. Fans and bettors are closely following every game, as the main contenders for the title are being determined right now. The question of who will be able to reach the final and bring maximum profit to those who dare to make a long-term bet is becoming more and more relevant. Why is it important to consider the favorites for betting at this moment? The answer is simple: the odds are still attractive, and the dynamics of the season allow you to assess the real chances of the teams before the decisive games.

How metrics help identify the future NCAA champion

Experienced analysts and fans have long noticed that success in the tournament is rarely accidental. The key indicators of championship ambitions are offensive and defensive efficiency. Adjusted offensive efficiency means the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions, taking into account the strength of opponents. Adjusted defensive efficiency reflects how many points a team allows over the same 100 possessions. These metrics are calculated by KenPom and are considered the standard for evaluating team strength. Historical data confirms the importance of these indicators: since 2002, all NCAA champions have ranked in the top 40 in offense and the top 25 in defense according to KenPom. Such balance allows you to make reliable predictions about the outcome of the tournament.

Arizona shows strength and aims for the top of the rankings

This season, Arizona is confidently confirming its status as one of the main contenders for the title. The team stands out for its outstanding scoring and variety of offensive plays. The Wildcats score points both through fast drives to the basket and accurate perimeter shooting. Interestingly, only 22.4% of Arizona’s points come from beyond the arc, which speaks to their offensive versatility. At the same time, the team makes 57.9% of its shots from close range and 37.8% of its three-pointers, putting them among the leaders in efficiency. Offensive rebounds remain an important weapon for the Wildcats: in this metric, they are among the top three in the country, which allows them to create second-chance opportunities.

Arizona also commands respect on defense. Tall and athletic players make it difficult for opponents to get second-chance points. The Wildcats consistently limit opponents’ rebounds and often force them into mistakes. In defensive efficiency, the team ranks fourth in the country, confirming their versatility. In their conference, Arizona remains the clear favorite, and a successful regular season performance almost guarantees a high seed in the playoffs. Will the Wildcats be able to realize their potential and reach the championship game for the first time in a long while? This question concerns not only fans but also everyone looking for value bets.

Gonzaga surprises with depth and maturity of its roster

Gonzaga is traditionally considered a team capable of making a run in March, but this year their chances look especially strong thanks to a deep rotation and experience. The Bulldogs have nine players, each of whom spends at least 17 minutes on the court. This bench depth allows them to maintain a high pace and avoid fatigue among key players. In terms of average roster experience, Gonzaga ranks second in the country according to KenPom, and their rotation includes eight senior players. This factor becomes crucial in high-pressure games of the tournament, where every mistake can cost the season.

On offense, the Bulldogs show impressive scoring: they make 52.4% of their field goals and 59.2% of their two-point shots. The team does not rely on three-pointers, but still consistently scores on fast breaks and confidently controls the boards. Gonzaga’s defense also deserves praise: they actively force turnovers, rank high in rebounding percentage on both ends of the court, and know how to dictate the pace of the game. The question arises whether Mark Few can finally lead the team to a long-awaited championship, as such a balanced and experienced roster does not come around every year.

Michigan State brings intrigue back and relies on ironclad defense

Michigan State under Tom Izzo has always been known for discipline and fighting spirit, but this season the team is especially impressive on defense. The Spartans do not allow opponents to get offensive rebounds, second only to one team in this metric nationwide. They block shots (seventh in block percentage) and force opponents to miss from the perimeter—only 30.8% of three-pointers are made against them. This approach denies opponents second-chance opportunities and forces them to look for unconventional solutions.

On offense, Michigan State has significantly improved compared to last season. If a year ago the team ranked 316th in three-point percentage, now this figure has risen to 36.3%. This has allowed them to balance their game and make the Spartans less predictable for opponents. One should not forget the Big Ten conference factor: it features the strongest teams, which guarantees Michigan State great preparation for the tournament. Whether Tom Izzo is ready to surprise basketball America again and lead the team to the top remains one of the most intriguing questions of the season.

Comparing the favorites and identifying the strongest

  • Arizona: versatile offense, high shooting percentage, dominance on the boards, elite defense
  • Gonzaga: deep and experienced roster, high scoring, quality defense, rebounding consistency
  • Michigan State: tough defense, improved offense, experienced coach, battle-tested in a strong conference

If you compare these teams, Arizona stands out with offensive potential and rebounding, Gonzaga—with depth and experience, and Michigan State—with defensive consistency and the ability to adapt to the opponent. Possible weaknesses include Gonzaga’s lack of star players, pressure on Arizona due to their favorite status, and offensive inconsistency in tough games for Michigan State.

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Other contenders remain outside the top 3 and explain their positions

This season, teams such as Kansas, Duke, or Purdue could also contend for the championship. However, each of these teams has its vulnerabilities: Kansas suffers from inconsistent defense, Duke does not always show balance between lines, and Purdue depends on one or two star players. NCAA history knows examples when unexpected teams pull off upsets, so you should not completely rule out alternatives.

Betting tips and a reminder about risks make the prediction informed

Before placing a bet on the NCAA champion, it is important to carefully study the statistics and monitor the current form of the teams. Even the strongest favorites can face unexpected difficulties, as the tournament bracket and pressure on the leaders can change the course of events. Betting always involves risk, so approach it thoughtfully. Follow the tournament, analyze the data, and choose those teams that are truly capable of going the distance. Only then will the excitement bring enjoyment and a chance for success.