Why underdogs dominate March Madness Bets

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Every spring, Americans gather in arenas and in front of their screens to watch the peak of college basketball, March Madness. The best thing about March Madness is the uncertainty that engulfs the whole country. Diehard basketball fans and casual bettors don’t know what to expect, since sometimes, the underdogs dominate the event, leaving everyone’s mouth agape. 

Unlike other major sports championships, March Madness thrives in chaos. 68 teams going head to head for seven rounds in three weeks is not just a normal sporting event. It makes sense why out of the four most viewed basketball games of 2025, three were March Madness games. The finals, i.e., the brawl between Houston and Florida, brought forth at least 18.1 million viewers, higher than game seven of the NBA Finals, which had 16.4 million viewers. 

For online bettors, March Madness is more than Christmas. During this time, sportsbooks are always busy coming up with and adjusting odds, as games are always going haywire. If a bettor is using the Hollywood bet app, they are able to track as odds develop with the rising tension. Underdogs particularly bring in the heat, considering that they come out of nowhere and dominate the championship. If you had not spotted them from afar, you might end up being surprised as they appear in the final four. 

But why do underdogs normally dominate this betting field? This article will be getting more details. 

The allure of the underdog

The appeal of underdog betting did not just start today. You most probably know about David vs. Goliath or Rocky Balboa. And if there is anything to go with such tales, humans love upsets. However, March Madness turns this storyline into an annual, data-backed opportunity. People with the Hollywood bet app just keep scrolling to see what the oddsmakers are coming up with. As fans watch their brackets unfold, these underestimated squads remind the people why March Madness is indeed madness. 

According to the NCAA tournament history, lower-seeded teams have a consistent track record or surprising wings and covers. Some of the unforgettable events have seen double-digit seeds make it to the Sweet 16, Elite Eight and even most surprisingly, the Final Four. 

Looking at the NCAA website, you’ll note some crazy statistics, like No. 2 seeds being thrashed hard by No. 15 seeds. In 2023, Princeton became the 11th No. 15 seed to defeat a No. 2 seed when it beat Arizona in the first round of the tournament. In 2018, UMBC became the first 16-seed to defeat a 1-seed, after beating Virginia. 

For sports bettors, these upsets are gold mines. The odds for this game can be steep, and the payouts backing up the underdogs are often worth the risk. 

Against the spread: Where underdogs shine

While most brackets focus on who wins or loses, savvy gamblers also bet against the spread. Here, you don’t need the underdog to win outright. They just need to keep the game close and cover the spread on betting platforms like the Hollywood bet app. Most of the time, underdogs consistently outperform expectations. 

After a number of games, you realize that this small edge has become massive, particularly earlier in the tournament, where public sentiment is trained on top seeds. Favorites are often overvalued by sportsbooks because of the brand name. For instance, when you hear Duke, Kentucky or Kansas, you immediately think of a win. For bettors who take advantage of every opportunity, this creates favorable lines when you are betting the other way.

How to spot smart underdog bets

You might think that, since low seeds have a history of beating the higher seeds or covering the spread, picking the lowest ranking team and crossing your fingers is the way to go. However, you should remember that the favorites are the favorites for a reason. For you to identify the right underdog, it’s not all about picking the lower seed and hoping for the best. And as some people normally say, hope is not a strategy.

Here are some of the signs that will help you separate Cinderella from just plain wishful thinking:

  • Teams with high defensive ratings can control the tempo of a game and frustrate high-powered offenses.
  • Teams with mid-majors but veteran leadership might stand out against powerhouses led by freshmen.
  • An underdog that lives and dies by three-point shooting can be quite dangerous.
  • Watch how the point spread shifts before tipoff. 

The most unforgettable underdogs

With underdogs, it's not about winning the trophy. It is more about honor and pride for their school and the stories they’ll tell for years to come. And whether they make it to the final four or get out earlier, the mark they leave cannot be forgotten. Here are some of them:

  • No. 11 VCU Rams in 2011: Made it to the final four after beating No. 11 Trojans, No. 6 Georgetown, No. 3 Boilermakers, No. 10 Florida State Seminoles and No. 1 Kansas.
  • No. 15 Saint Peter’s in 2022: Made it to the Elite Eight after thrashing No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats, No. 7 Murray State Racers and No. 3 Purdue.
  • No. 10 Davidson Wildcats in 2008: Got to the Elite Eight after beating No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs, No. 2 Georgetown Hoyas and No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers.

Betting on the underdogs is more than just a thrill. However, it is not about picking the lowest seed and taking it up against the highest just to chase big payouts. It’s about finding loopholes in public opinions and oddsmakers' decisions and capitalizing on them. With the right combination of data analysis, historical awareness and gut instinct, you can turn March Madness into something else.